Virtual Water Trade: A Solution to Kenya's Agricultural Dilemma?
Water in Kenya
Kenya is generally characterised as water scarce. This has been attributed to a combination of poor infrastructure, recurrent droughts and most notably, population pressures. With the nation's population predicted to more than double by 2050 to 85 million, per capita renewable blue water will diminish to 316m3, significantly below the quantity needed for an adequate diet. Moreover, Kenya's freshwater resources are unevenly distributed (Figure 1). This is especially true for green water: arid northern and eastern regions have annual precipitation rates as low as 200mm, less than one sixth of that experienced in the more fertile region of Mount Kenya. |
| Figure 1 Map showing uneven freshwater distribution in Kenya. There are five main water towers - Mount Elgon, Cherangani Hills, Mau Complex, Aberdare Range and Mount Kenya. |
Agriculture
Agriculture is vital to Kenya’s economy: it directly accounts for 26% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a further 27% indirectly. Nationwide, 54% of the population are employed in this sector and this figure rises to 70% in some rural regions. Agriculture is not only key to economic growth but it also bears a strong influence on total water consumption: 98% of Kenya’s total water footprint is attributed to agricultural production. Maize has the highest water footprint of any cereal crop (6794 million m3/year) which is unsurprising as Kenya's staple food, ugali, is made from cornmeal. Furthermore, rising meat consumption means it now has the largest water footprint of any food (10,501 million m3/year) and is increasing the pressure on already-limited freshwater resources.
The Potential of VWT
VWT involves water-poor nations increasing imports of food from water-rich nations. This means domestic water resources can be reserved for the production of commodities that generate greater added value per unit of water. In the case of Kenya, this would mean prioritising the production of high-value vegetables, spices, tea, coffee and cut-flowers.
The premise of VWT sounds promising but it does not come without its challenges, the main one being the maintenance of domestic food security. As mentioned, maize is a staple crop in Kenyan diets yet a VWT policy would see its domestic production be discouraged due to low economic return per unit of water.
This raises a fundamental question. Should water use be prioritised for high-value export commodities or be reserved for domestic food production? Both come at the expense of the other. Although increasing water productivity can postpone the need such a trade-off, this conflict of interest is inevitable in the face of exponential population growth and more water-intensive eating patterns arising from increase animal product consumption.
VWT's Future
So, what does this mean moving forward? The complexity of Kenya's water situation means policy must consider several factors to avoid negative externalities for economic development and food production. With agriculture being an important source of employment nationwide, policy favouring virtual water import (i.e. prioritising high-value exports and importing more low-cost crops) may result in significant social stress. Moreover, Kenya has been cited as less competitive in the production of major cereal crops, especially maize, than neighbouring Uganda and Tanzania. The domestic agricultural sector must therefore avoid being outpriced but this is dependent on water allocation and pricing. Green water scarcity is also important to consider here as it accounts for 97% of freshwater used in agriculture.
While a VWT strategy has potential to ameliorate Kenya's water security, the ease with which this can be implemented is not as great as once thought. The potential knock-on effects for nationwide employment and domestic food production and security are substantial. This highlights a need for cost-benefit analyses of VWT policies and a concerted effort to consider the impacts for all stakeholders.
Great post!! I think virtual water could be a way forward for water scarce nations.When did virtual water trading first start? Is it a relatively recent idea, or has it been around for a very long time?
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteFrom my research, it appears the term was first coined by Tony Allan (Geographer at Kings College London) in the early 1990s. Allan conceptualised virtual water as the water needed to produce goods. The term was introduced to help understand how international trade impacts global water flow. Allan theorised that water-poor countries could import food from those that are water-rich. This enables them to preserve their own resources for drinking, sanitation (and sometimes export industry) as opposed to agriculture.
I would recommend the following webpage for more information on its origins - https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/virtual-water
Hope this helps!
The case study approcah in expaining water scarcity but also possible solution is a good approach, also the use of figure in contextualising the challenge. I was wondering if the approach to virual water could take into consideration local variation in freshwater distribution and agricultural productivity.
ReplyDeleteThank you. I think one of the main challenges of adopting a VWT strategy is ensuring its positive impacts are felt equitably. Kenya has five main water towers which are the most agriculturally productive regions. There are concerns that by adopting VWT, those areas growing the most export crops will reap most of the economic benefits (especially larger farms). Furthermore, there is the concern that VWT may contribute to domestic food insecurity by discouraging the production of maize, a staple crop nationwide. This impact will be felt most acutely by smallholder farmers who also rely on this crop as sustenance.
DeleteIn this light, I think it is important that if a VWT strategy is adopted by Kenya, that it considers how to ensure its economic benefits are felt equitably so that smallholder farmers, especially in the (semi-) arid north, are not at a disadvantage. Moreover, government assistance to smallholder farmers to help them adapt to growing new (more expensive) export crops would be crucial. Again, this would be particularly important in the more arid regions of the nation where water availability is less and agricultural production is more challenging.
Hi Emma, you showed the potential and future of virtual water trade in Kenya in this post, I am just wondering what is the situation of virtual water trade in other African countries? Can the same strategy be applied?
ReplyDeleteHi Sihan! Thank you for your comment. When I did this post, I also did a bit of research on virtual water trade for other Africa nations. One of the key findings was that it appears to be a popular strategy for some north African countries such as Algeria. According to Hoekstra & Hung (2002), Algeria has just 20-50% water self-sufficiency and it is a highly water dependent country i.e. is heavily reliant on virtual water import. To put this into perspective, Kenya's water self-sufficiency stands at 50-70% and Zambia's at 100%.
DeleteThe implementation of a VWT policy is contingent on a nation's specific environmental and socio-economic situation. It is therefore essential that these policies consider this. As a result, a VWT strategy elsewhere would look different to what it does in Kenya - nations with higher self-sufficiency may be able to export more virtual water whereas water scarce nations are more inclined to import.
Great post! Do you see Kenya reducing its reliance on agricultural productions anytime soon? This could potentially help them reduce water usage if they can get into different sectors.
ReplyDeleteHi Sara! Thank you for your comment. Interestingly, the UN (2011) has identified Kenya as having one of the most diversified economies in Africa, despite its high reliance on agriculture. The tourism sector also acts as a buffer to economic crises and is one of the strongest sectors with potential for further growth. However, tourism is highly sensitive to political unrest and thus further diversification is needed.
DeleteKenya has already made substantial progress in diversifying its economy, so much so that it is set to become the an East African (and even continental) economic powerhouse. The private sector has also provided a strong foundation for a growth in the service sector.
Moving forward, this economic diversification may reduce water needs in the agriculture sector but industrial (and potentially domestic) demands could increase as other areas of the economy begin to flourish and household incomes rise. This may alter Kenya's virtual water strategy but I'm not sure it will eradicate VWT it altogether.